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A self-sufficient Afghanistan?

By Elham Esmat

Afghanistan is dependent on foreign support. This development began during the rule of Amir Abdul Rahman Khan in the 19th century and continued over the following decades until the collapse of the state in the early 1990s.

Looking back, especially to the period of Soviet occupation, one sees that the state, civil society and armed opposition groups became increasingly dependent on support from competing international powers. The resulting inability to act independently has led, among other things, to the decline of Afghanistan’s political and social society.

The extent to which this dependence can reach can be seen in the example of the republic that collapsed in August 2021. One reason why the war lasted was probably that individual foreign and Afghan parties profited economically from the conflict – the suffering of the population was thereby prolonged.

Today, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is marked by political isolation, the associated stoppage of foreign development aid and the freezing of central bank reserves. Therefore, expanding the country’s self-sufficiency is a central part of the Taliban’s strategy. Successful self-sufficiency in Afghanistan must not only focus on economic growth, but must also include other aspects such as infrastructure development, job creation, poverty reduction and the establishment of a minimum standard of living to secure basic needs.

These aspirations are reflected in current state projects: the conclusion of large mining contracts, the expansion of oil production, dams, railways, tunnels and, in particular, the future completion of the prestigious Qushtepa Canal.

It remains to be seen whether this will be a turning point for the country – especially given the fact that before coming to power, three quarters of public spending was financed with foreign aid. According to their own statements, the Taliban rely largely on domestic revenues and customs duties to finance their projects. In addition to these restrictions, the emirate prioritizes covering current expenditure (94.5% of total expenditure, according to World Bank reports), which is well ahead of development expenditure (5.5%).

Afghanistan will not be able to function completely without foreign support at present or in the medium term. Especially as a landlocked country, the country relies on cooperation with neighbors in order to secure trading routes. However, Afghanistan’s increasing self-sufficiency is also reducing foreign influence, which has recently led to political tensions with Iran and Pakistan, among others.

In any case, the emirate must perform the diplomatic balancing act of attracting enough foreign aid and investment to pave the way to self-sufficiency. It therefore remains to be seen whether and how the Taliban, together with the (especially Western) donors, will work out a solution to the controversial issues in the future, especially on the sensitive topics of inclusion and women’s education.

Originally posted 2024-03-16 17:59:57.