By Kai Pflug
In 2022, the Afghan authorities banned the cultivation of opium poppy and the production of opium. This ban so far has been very effective. Opium production declined by 95% from 6,200 tons produced in 2022 to 333 tons in 2023. Consequently, production of opium and heroin declined accordingly. The estimated value of opiate exports from the 2023 harvest was about US$230 million, down from US$2.0 billion in 2021, when it accounted for about 12% of national GDP.
Given the efforts of Western countries to reduce the production of illegal drugs in other countries (e.g., US efforts in Columbia), this has to be regarded as a substantial success even though it does expose affected poppy farmers at economic risk. According to a report by the relevant UN organization (UNODC, UN Office on Drugs and Crime) on which this blog post is based, in the past, the value of heroin exports alone frequently exceeded the value of Afghanistan’s legitimate exports of goods and services.
The economic effect on former poppy farmers is indeed substantial. When replacing poppy with wheat, which has a similar crop cycle, the per-hectare income declines from about US$10,000 to only about US$770. Replacement of poppy with higher-yielding crops such as pomegranates or almonds is possible, but requires capital as these crops do not immediately produce harvests.
Still, the report summarizes the overall effect of the ban in a fairly positive way: “The sharp reduction in opium cultivation in Afghanistan opens a window of opportunity to support rural communities and bring the country towards a licit trajectory of development with far-reaching implications. It may pave the way for diversifying Afghanistan’s economy to legal sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and services, and bolster economic stability.”
But it also warns that this requires cooperation from the outside world: “A sustainable reduction in opium poppy cultivation… will depend on whether farmers find suitable, economically viable alternatives that can offset their loss from opium income or at least meet their basic and immediate needs. This will require greater cooperation with international partners and a willingness on the part of authorities to promote sustainable and equitable programs.”
Finally, while the reduction of heroin production in Afghanistan is certainly a positive development, it will certainly not solve drug problems in countries such as the USA. There, synthetic opioids such as fentanyl now cause many more deaths than heroin ever did. Or, as the report puts it, “The experience in North America with fentanyl overtaking heroin in major drug markets is illustrative of how a cheaper and readily available synthetic opioid can easily displace heroin.”
https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2023.pdf
Originally posted 2024-03-22 07:46:33.
